Kentucky Derby lineup, analysis















































































































HORSEANDREW BEYER’S ANALYSISODDS
1. Vicar’s In Trouble

Trainer: Mike Maker

Jockey: Rosie Napravnik
Napravnik bids to become the first female jockey ever to win the Run for the Roses. She has an outside chance — she rode this colt to a decisive victory in the Louisiana Derby.20-1
2. Harry’s Holiday

Trainer: Mike Maker

Jockey: Corey Lanerie


How seriously can you take an ex-claimer whose biggest victory came in the 96Rock Stakes at Turfway Park?50-1
3. Uncle Sigh

Trainer: Gary Contessa

Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Six months ago, Contessa told the owner, “We’re going to run in the Kentucky Derby.” He immediately regretted this premature promise, but the colt earned his way here with two second-place finishes in New York stakes.30-1
4. Danza

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Joe Bravo


Pletcher’s colt made an astonishing improvement to win the Arkansas Derby at odds of 41 to 1. If he improves further, he would be a strong contender.8-1
5. California Chrome

Trainer: Art Sherman

Jockey: Victor Espinosa


With four straight victories by a combined total of 24 lengths, the modestly bred colt from California deserves to be a solid favorite. But he’s no lock: The presence of several other speedsters in the field means that he’ll be under pressure from the start.5-2
6. Samraat

Trainer: Rick Violette

Jockey: Jose Ortiz


Quick colt won five straight races in New York before Wicked Strong beat him in the Wood Memorial. Trainer has total confidence in 20-year-old jockey, the youngest in the field.15-1
7. We Miss Artie

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Javier Castellano


He’s never won on dirt, he has trained poorly and Pletcher is lukewarm (at best) about running. But Eclipse Award-winning owner Ken Ramsey loves the limelight and wouldn’t pass up a chance to be in the Derby.50-1
8. General a Rod

Trainer: Mike Maker

Jockey: Joel Rosario


No jokes about performance-enhancing drugs, please. He’s named after Armando Rodriguez, who owned the colt until he sold him Monday. Probably a smart move. Derby distance is probably too long for the speedster.15-1
9. Vinceremos

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Joe Rocco Jr.


Lone stakes victory — by a nose — came against a weak field at Tampa Bay Downs. He’s not going to help Pletcher’s Derby record, currently 1-for 36.30-1
10. Wildcat Red

Trainer: Jose Garoffalo

Jockey: Luis Saez


Tenacious front-runner won two stakes at Gulfstream this winter and lost a photo in another. But neither his running style nor his pedigree suggests that he wants to go 11/ 4 miles.15-1
SCR. HoppertunityScratched.n/a
12. Dance With Fate

Trainer: Peter Eurton

Jockey: Corey Nakatani


He captured the Blue Grass Stakes — which is not necessarily a recommendation. Since Keeneland installed Polytrack, Blue Grass winners have fared poorly in the Derby. This stretch-running colt appears to be much better on synthetic tracks than on dirt.20-1
13. Chitu

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Jockey: Martin Garcia


He has high speed, and he has a three-time Derby-winning trainer. The negatives: He hasn’t raced since March 23 and he’s been suffering from a rare hoof condition called seedy toe. Baffert was uncertain last week about running in the Derby — not a good sign.20-1
14. Medal Count

Trainer: Dale Romans

Jockey: Robbie Albarado Jr.
Longshot appears to prefer running on turf or synthetic tracks, but Romans’s prior Derby entrants have done surprisingly well when they look unimposing on paper.20-1
15. Tapiture

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.


Not the sentimental favorite. A PETA video accuses Asmussen of treating horses inhumanely and suggests (without proof) that Santana has used a buzzer — an illegal device to make horses run faster by giving them electrical shocks.8-1
16. Intense Holiday

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: John Velazquez


Stretch-running winner of the Risen Star Stakes needs to improve, but he could do so. Clockers like the way he has trained at Churchill Downs this week.8-1
17. Commanding Curve

Trainer: Dallas Stewart

Jockey: Shaun Bridgmohan
When Ring Weekend got sick, this stretch-runner moved from No. 21 to No. 20 on the list of qualifiers. His best race was a third-place finish in the Louisiana Derby.50-1
18. Candy Boy

Trainer: John Sadler

Jockey: Gary Stevens
Stevens has won the Derby three times, and at 51 he is still riding in great form. His mount has been running well in tough California competition, but California Chrome beat him soundly in the Santa Anita Derby.15-1
19. Ride on Curlin

Trainer: William Gowan

Jockey: Calvin Borel


Borel has won the Derby three times; His rail-hugging ride on 50-1 Mine That Bird was one of the greatest in the race’s history. He’ll need some wizardry this year; His mount has never won a stakes race.15-1
20. Wicked Strong

Trainer: Jimmy Jerkens

Jockey: Rajiv Maragh


Allen Jerkens, one of the all-time great trainers, never won a Derby, but his son could do it here. Colt rallied to win the Wood Memorial impressively, and he could benefit from a fast pace in this field.6-1